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Introduction
The impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of physical hazards are putting many communities at risk. As the threat of climate change grows, so too does the need for accessible information, tools, and expertise to support climate-resilient decision making across multiple scales, from communities to countries. Woodwell Climate Research Center believes there is a need to localize and customize climate risk assessments. This information is critical for local government leaders as they make planning decisions, but it is not available to all communities. Woodwell believes that this science should be freely and widely available. To address this gap, Woodwell works with communities and countries across the world, including Ethiopia, to provide community climate risk assessments, free of charge.
Ethiopia, with its rich cultural heritage and about 126.5 million people (2023¹), faces growing climate challenges that also impact its economic priorities and natural resources. Located on the horn of Africa, Ethiopia boasts a diverse range of climates, from tropical forest in the southwest to desert in the north. Rain-fed agriculture forms the livelihoods of many of Ethiopia’s communities—agriculture accounted for nearly 35% of Ethiopia’s GDP in 2020.² Ethiopia experiences the effects of increased climate variability through extreme hazards including droughts, floods, and landslides across different parts of the country.
Ethiopia has established a strong policy landscape for climate action through several strategic initiatives. The national government has demonstrated their commitment to addressing Ethiopia’s climate future by embracing the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and incorporating resilience principles into its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC submitted in 2017 and revised in 2022. In addition, Ethiopia has outlined its commitment to sustainable development through key policy frameworks, including the Ten-Year Development Plan (2021–2030), the Long-Term Low Carbon Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS 2020–2050), the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE), and the National Adaptation Plan (NAP), aimed at mitigating risks associated with climate change and environmental degradation. Woodwell’s quantitative risk assessment of extreme precipitation, flooding, drought, and streamflow patterns builds upon Ethiopia’s deep knowledge systems and aims to complement existing national frameworks. This report intends to provide local data insights to support decision-makers and communities to take evidence-informed approaches for resilience.
The climate of Ethiopia is heavily influenced by its imposing topography. The country can be roughly divided into the highlands that make up most of the western half of Ethiopia and the lowlands which consist of southeast and northeast Ethiopia. These two zones differ significantly in the distribution, intensity, and seasonality of rainfall. This variation affects water availability, agriculture, and climate resilience across the country. The highlands generally see around 1,500 mm of rainfall per year (Figure 1) which falls mostly during the Kirempt season (June–September). The lowlands receive considerably less rainfall, about 300 mm annually, which occurs largely during the Belg rainy season (February–May).
Due to this sharp gradient in annual rainfall, the type of agriculture to support livelihoods differs between the highlands and the lowlands. Crop-based agriculture dominates the highlands (Figure 2), while as one moves southeast and northeast towards the lowlands, pastoral communities become more prevalent. Approximately 94% of Ethiopia’s crop production occurs in the Meher season (September–February) which is largely a product of the Kirempt rainy season.³ A failure of the summer rains would be devastating for the Ethiopian people, especially since more than 85% of the labor force is engaged in the agricultural sector, with only 5% of crop production is irrigated, making the sector highly dependent on rainfall.⁴ Internal climate variability can lead to large swings in annual rainfall from year to year leading to a drought prone environment. Additionally, bursts of extreme precipitation that cause flooding can occur in drought years resulting in concurrent disaster events.