Overview of COP29

The 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (COP29) took place from November 11–24, 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan. The conference was characterized by five key expectations:

The focus on climate finance permeated the conference, as countries used finance considerations as bargaining chips across all negotiating tracks. The meetings began with an agenda fight as China, India and others sought to discuss unilateral trade measures in reaction to the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism, which they see as an illicit trade barrier. Others sought more ways to reflect climate finance on the agenda. Consequently, one day of negotiations was lost. But delegates were determined to succeed, at least to reduce the disruption expected in 2025 from political upheaval around the world.

Thus, by its second day, the conference settled into a stable mode of work, though countries struggled to advance the negotiations in the first week. The Azerbaijani Presidency had to take much riskier steps to compensate for this. In the second week, pairs of ministers were assigned to lead work on the finance goal, mitigation ambition, adaptation, and Article 6. On Thursday, the Presidency issued a first package of draft outcomes, built on recommendations from technical negotiations and ministers. The presidency organized a meeting, which resulted in most countries criticizing the initial package. But the Presidency published two more iterations, while constantly consulting with all groups of Parties. Through this, a balance was found, and the outcomes were adopted early on Sunday, November 24. Some countries, including India, Nigeria and Bolivia, tried to block the adoption of the finance goal, and were severely unhappy with the outcomes and the process.

Key decisions taken at COP29

The main substantive outcome of COP29 was named the Baku Climate Unity Pact, comprising:

Other key decisions were adopted in relation to:

There were several key issues that could not be concluded. On all of these, Parties did not reach consensus and will continue next year based on the latest materials discussed at COP29:

General observations about the outcomes

Outlook towards COP30

COP29 mostly tied up loose ends that have been complicating the UNFCCC for several years: the new climate finance goal and Article 6. However, the dissatisfaction with the finance goal among developing countries might create problems in 2025, it remains to be seen if the Article 6.4 mechanism will have environmental integrity, and no new solutions were found for mitigation ambition. In addition, the global climate policy landscape is now dotted with dialogues and round tables that are supposed to discuss finance, ambition, adaptation, etc., creating a potential distraction from the “ambition homework” that governments should now be undertaking. In 2025, these challenges will be complicated by the intentions of some countries to leave the Paris Agreement.

In 2025, the main milestone is the deadline for new NDCs on February 9. These will show how well the ambition mechanism of the Paris Agreement is working. However, the global climate regime lacks any robust follow-up mechanism for these because, under the Paris Agreement, ambition is nationally determined. The “Troika” of Presidencies of COP28, 29 and 30 will continue its work, but so far has not generated any visible results, and its hands are similarly tied by the paradigm of national determination. Brazil will take a more leading role in 2025 and might benefit from close ties to all major economies and the developing world. In a nutshell, the COP30 Presidency has inherited a major ambition challenge, but has very few tools to respond to it. Positively, Brazil has experienced negotiators and knows how to navigate the UNFCCC.

The official agenda for COP30 was supposed to be modest, but several things not agreed at this COP will need to be taken up again. The issues that should be concluded include: the global resilience indicators, the arrangements for the global stocktake dialogue, as well as just transition. However, the clear expectation is that the COP should do something about mitigation (though nobody knows what exactly), and developing countries, especially those that took home grievances from COP29, will consider the climate finance conversation far from over.

The UN process remains the main framework for coordinating and enabling global climate collaboration. It is slow and it gravitates towards the lowest common denominator, but it continues to bring together the most influential global actors—national governments—to work to bridge their differences.

The impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of physical hazards are putting many communities at risk. As the threat of climate change grows, so too does the need for accessible information, tools, and expertise to support climate-resilient decision making across multiple scales, from communities to countries. Woodwell Climate Research Center believes there is a need to localize and customize climate risk assessments. This information is critical for local government leaders as they make planning decisions, but it is not available to all communities. Woodwell believes that this science should be freely and widely available. To address this gap, Woodwell works with communities across the world, including Chicopee, MA, to provide community climate risk assessments, free of charge.

The impacts of climate change on the frequency and severity of physical hazards are putting many communities at risk. As the threat of climate change grows, so too does the need for accessible information, tools, and expertise to support climate-resilient decision making across multiple scales, from communities to countries. Woodwell Climate Research Center believes there is a need to localize and customize climate risk assessments. This information is critical for local government leaders as they make planning decisions, but it is not available to all communities. Woodwell believes that this science should be freely and widely available. To address this gap, Woodwell works with communities across the world, including Barnstable, MA, to provide community climate risk assessments, free of charge.