What happens when salmon don’t return?
Regional warming in the Arctic is exacerbating the decline of Yukon River Chinook Salmon
By Nicole Pepper and Ellis Goud
To Brooke Woods, fish is everything. Living just outside the Koyukon village of Rampart, Alaska – one of 50 small fishing communities along the Yukon River – her daily childhood routine involved waking up in the log cabin her family built, walking to school every day, and most importantly, going to fish camp right outside of her home.
Fish camp is both a location and a tradition. During the summer, families travel to riverside camps to harvest and process fish for the long winters, as well as connect with community and large extended families. Here on the Yukon River, the camps line the banks of the world’s longest salmon migration. The river and its tributaries pass through countless Alaska Native communities across the region, providing a key location to fish throughout the summer.
“Growing up, salmon, fish camp, and family were such important parts of our livelihoods and kinship,” Woods says. “My mom’s siblings – she was one of eleven – would all come to Rampart from surrounding communities where they lived, including my grandma. And we would all go to fish camp, which is a really important place outside of our homes.”
Today, Woods is the Climate Adaptation Specialist at Woodwell Climate Research Center, where she integrates Indigenous Knowledge to shape equitable and science-backed policy in the Arctic. But now, she can’t fish for salmon in the river she grew up near. And neither can anyone else.
Salmon as subsistence
Last year, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game and Fisheries and Oceans Canada signed an agreement suspending the harvest of Chinook salmon for seven years – the length of their life cycle – in response to declining population numbers. A combination of mortality from bycatch and environmental factors from climate change has exacerbated their decline.
Chinook salmon, also known as king salmon, are one of the main salmon species in the Yukon River. They are the largest, most nutritious, and most valued fish in Alaska Native culture. Over the past few years, their numbers across the state have fallen below the long-term average. Historically, 375,000 salmon passed through the Yukon River Drainage every year. Last year, there were only 65,000.
The ban on Chinook harvesting is devastating for Alaska Native communities because salmon, among other fish, make up a large part of their traditional diet. Rich in protein, omega-3 fatty acids, and essential vitamins, salmon has served as a primary food source for thousands of years.
Subsistence provides food security in rural Alaska and is necessary for community health. Due to remoteness, short growing seasons, and high transportation costs of food, fresh produce is scarce. Without access to salmon, Alaska Native communities often have to replace this crucial protein with expensive commercial foods that are lower in quality and nutrition.
Beyond nutritional and economic benefits, salmon is also a vital part of Alaska Native culture. Knowledge of salmon harvesting is passed down through generations, and the sharing and receiving of salmon is critical to preserving traditional ways of life. It is also a way for communities to connect with the land.
“Salmon is such an important part of who we are as Indigenous people,” Woods explains. “I feel like I’m very strong in my culture because of salmon.”
But as salmon populations decline and harvesting halts, Alaska Native communities lose access to one of the most vital fish species in their diet and culture.
“Our foods, they keep us well in so many different ways,” Woods says. “And when that’s taken away from you, it’s hard to find healthy ways to get through.”
The journey across the Yukon River
Every June, Alaska Native communities wait in anticipation for the salmon to arrive.
Yukon River Chinook salmon begin their lives in freshwater spawning grounds and spend up to a year growing into juveniles, also known as smolts. After going through smoltification, they migrate into the ocean and spend anywhere from one to six years maturing and growing into adults. When they are ready to reproduce, salmon migrate from the Bering Sea back to their spawning grounds across the Yukon River basin.
As adult Chinook salmon make the journey upstream to spawn, some migrate as much as 2,000 miles. Starting in the summer, typically from June to September, the salmon pass through the Yukon in different groups called runs.
To George Yaska, the Indigenous Knowledge Liaison for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Alaska, the summer season passes in phases of fish runs. Yaska grew up in Huslia and lived off of fish on the Koyukuk River, a tributary that flows downstream into the Yukon.
“The very first salmon that show up are the fish that we want to start cutting,” Yaska says. “They’re the freshest, the strongest, the biggest, and the fattest.”
Chinook and chum (dog) salmon migrate through the Yukon first, followed by coho (silver) salmon. While many people travel to the riverside to fish, Yaska says Alaska Native fishers only take what they need.
“If we did well early, we would stop [fishing],” Yaska says. “There were lots of people above us. The fish haven’t got to them yet, and we have to let them fish.”
But year after year, less and less salmon are passing through the Yukon. Growing up, Yaska’s family would take 40 to 50 fish to keep them fed through the winter. In the 90s, it was 10 to 20. And this year, it’s zero.
Warming temperatures are killing salmon
Science indicates that warming water temperatures are a major contributor to low salmon returns, NOAA Fisheries says. As climate change advances, rivers in higher latitudes, like the Yukon River, are warming nearly twice as fast as rivers in temperate areas. In recent years, Alaska has recorded multiple record-breaking heatwaves – including this summer. The state released its first heat advisory ever in June.
In outer regions around Fairbanks, temperatures above 75 degrees trigger a heat advisory. In the interior, it’s 85 degrees. In June, temperatures were expected to reach the mid-80s.
While these temperatures may not appear dangerous, they can cause extreme ecological changes in the Arctic, including increased wildfires, permafrost thaw, soil erosion, and most important for salmon, ocean and stream warming.
Increased water temperatures impact salmon health at every stage in their life, especially during their migration period. They become stressed in warmer water, forcing them to burn energy faster and swim slower. Salmon also become more susceptible to disease.
Daily maximum stream temperatures have risen over 10 degrees above the optimal spawning temperature of 5 degrees Celsius this summer. In July, Yukon River Drainage’s pilot station – the first station in the watershed that all salmon must pass through to migrate upstream – exceeded the critical temperature threshold of 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius) nine days in a row. Once a stream’s temperature passes this temperature limit, fish can lose their ability to function.
In the Salcha Station, located in the middle of the Yukon River Drainage, daily maximum stream temperatures were higher than the maximum optimal spawning temperature of 55 degrees Fahrenheit (12.8 degrees Celsius) throughout the majority of the summer. The Salcha Station is historically one of the most abundant spawning grounds for Chinook salmon.
The management crisis
Issues around commercial harvesting have also played a role in declining salmon runs in Alaska. In the mid-90s, the majority of Chinook salmon in the Yukon were overharvested by commercial fishermen several years in a row. In 1995, the first 10-mile stretch of the Yukon River after the Bering Sea (also known as Y-1) was the site of a large-scale overharvesting event.
“Eight hundred commercial fishermen fished for 9 and a half or 10 and a half inch fish, which is huge,” Yaska says. “In a 24-hour opening, they caught 147,000 kings.”
Because there were so many taken at once, salmon have not been able to rebound to their initial population numbers.
“Ever since then, the run has been demolished,” Yaska says.
Bycatch at sea also poses a threat to salmon populations. Trawlers catching pollock, a common fish in the Bering Sea, are the main source of salmon bycatch. When salmon are unintentionally caught by large industrial trawlers, the fish often die from stress, injury, or suffocation.
In 2011, the NPFMC implemented a Chinook salmon bycatch limit in response to unusually high bycatch numbers – including a peak of 122,000 caught in 2007. Amendment 91 designed a system to manage Chinook salmon bycatch in the Bering Sea pollock fishery by setting two caps on the number of salmon that could be incidentally caught, with a high limit of 60,000 and a low limit of 47,591 depending on the overall size of the salmon runs that year.
Amendment 110, also called the Three-River Index, was developed shortly after Amendment 91 to further monitor and protect Chinook salmon populations. If the number of salmon returning to the Kuskokwim, Unalakleet, and Upper Yukon River systems is less than 250,000 fish, the cap is reduced to a high limit of 45,000 and a low limit of 33,318.
To measure bycatch, every pollock vessel in the Bering Sea must carry at least one certified observer to monitor, identify, and count salmon. Additionally, every vessel has an Electronic Monitoring system and cameras to record the vessel’s catch.
But even with current management actions, salmon populations are still struggling. As stream temperatures increase, salmon are under possibly lethal conditions during the summer months of migration. Decreasing bycatch numbers in the Bering Sea before salmon migrate through the Yukon River gives the population the best chance of dealing with today’s climate stressors.
“All the other issues that are now in play – temperatures, ocean conditions, ecosystem problems due to trawling out in the Bering Sea – all of those things are now having an impact when they didn’t before,” Yaska says.
Taking community action
When fewer salmon return to the Yukon River, tribes, communities, and families suffer. As climate warming and bycatch decimate salmon populations, Alaska Native communities believe the best course of action towards salmon success is Indigenous-informed management practices, not banning subsistence.
“Shutting down subsistence in rivers – shutting down tribes – is not the solution,” Woods says. “Tribes are not the reason we are seeing the salmon collapse. We have traditional values of only taking what you need.”
Woods has spent almost 10 years in the advocacy sphere, where she and Alaska Native community members have worked to uplift tribal sovereignty in governance and management. Although the work is exhausting, Woods has seen progress and solidarity across the region.
“Tribes and Alaska Native organizations are exhausting all avenues to ensure that our salmon survive and that traditional practices, or subsistence, is provided,” Woods says.
When Alaska Native community members are represented in government bodies like the Alaska Board of Fisheries, management practices can focus on encouraging representative and equitable decision making while protecting both salmon and subsistence.
Yaska, who works with tribes on both the Yukon and Kuskokwim Rivers through the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, ensures the integration of Alaska Native knowledge into conservation efforts. By giving community members a seat at the table, their knowledge and way of life can be preserved. And as Alaska Native culture and tradition is protected, so are the salmon that communities rely on.
“Because salmon have no voice, we have to try to speak for them,” Yaska says.
From translating data into tools, to improving hazard management: Fund for Climate Solutions awards five new grants
The first round of 2025 Fund for Climate Solutions (FCS) awardees has been announced. The FCS advances innovative, solutions-oriented climate science through a competitive, internal, and cross-disciplinary funding process. Generous donor support has enabled us to raise more than $10 million towards the FCS, funding 74 research grants since 2018. Many of the latest cohort of grantees are translating data into tools for amplified impact. One project is bringing climate-related hazard expertise to at-risk communities, empowering them to co-create hazard management plans with their government officials.
A generic climate AI framework for multi-domain time series prediction
Lead: Dr. Yili Yang
Collaborators: Dr. Elchin Jafarov, Dr. Brendan Rogers, Dogukan Teber, Dr. José Lucas Safanelli, Dr. Andrea Castanho, Dr. Christopher Schwalm, Dominick Dusseau, Dr. Marcia Macedo, Dr. Jonathan Sanderman, Dr. Anna Liljedahl, Dr. Sue Natali, Dr. Michael Coe
Current climate science relies heavily on physics-based numerical models to make a wide range of predictions—from thawing permafrost in the Arctic, to tropical fires in the Brazilian Amazon, to soil carbon budgets of pastures, and risks associated with flooding. These types of models require an intense amount of computing power, and are expensive to run enough times to test a variety of detailed scenarios and assumptions. Researchers often need to simplify the models or the questions they are asking, limiting the insights that they can extract. To address this problem, the project team will use deep learning to develop a Center-wide AI framework for climate data that encompasses data from across regions and projects, reducing computational costs and energy demands. This new framework will have the potential to transform the ability of all Woodwell Climate researchers to provide policymakers with rapid, accurate predictions that support urgent climate response strategies.
Climate and Indigenous-centered boreal wildfire risk assessment
Lead: Dr. Kayla Mathes
Collaborators: Dr. Brendan Rogers and Dr. Peter Frumhoff
While fire has always been an important part of boreal ecosystems, fires that reach beyond historical patterns on the landscape are posing widespread consequences for climate, Indigenous sovereignty, and public health. Through our partnerships with land managers and community leaders in Alaska, Woodwell Climate researchers have identified two key barriers to responsive management and policy action: 1) Fire managers currently lack maps that identify areas with both a high probability of wildfire, and a high carbon emission potential from burning and permafrost thaw. 2) Current fire management priorities do not adequately include Indigenous knowledge and community needs. This project will generate two maps to address boreal fire management knowledge gaps. The team will create one map representing wildfire carbon vulnerability, and will also work with Yukon Flats Indigenous communities to co-produce a regionally-specific map that identifies their wildfire management needs and priorities.
Forms and functions of soil organic carbon
Lead: Dr. Jonathan Sanderman
Collaborators: Dr. José Lucas Safanelli, Dr. Ludmila Rattis, Dr. Christopher Neill
Not all carbon is created equal—some forms of carbon are easier for microbes to break down, while others are more persistent. In soils, scientists are typically interested in a few specific forms of organic carbon, but each type has a different decay rate. Measuring the amount of each type of carbon—referred to as fractions—in a soil sample is currently labor intensive, sometimes requiring highly specialized equipment. Woodwell Climate researchers recently proved that a 60-second, low-cost spectroscopy scan can provide similar information on soil carbon fractions to days of work with traditional methods. However, this scan relies on machine learning or deep learning algorithms and high-quality, geographically appropriate training datasets. This project will build an open-source database of soil carbon fraction data, along with freely-available models to predict soil carbon fractions using spectroscopy, hosted by the Woodwell-led Open Soil Spectral Library and Estimation Service. This groundbreaking solution offers a transformative approach to soil carbon monitoring—making soil carbon fraction prediction more widely accessible to labs around the world.
Empowering the Tropical Forests Forever Facility with a tool for informed decision-making
Lead: Dr. Glenn Bush
Collaborators: Kathleen Savage, Patrick Fedor, Emily Sturdivant, Dr. Wayne Walker, Dr. Ludmila Rattis, Dr. Michael Coe
The Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF), is an initiative spearheaded by the Government of Brazil to establish a US$125 billion global investment fund. If successfully established, TFFF can generate long-term finance to provide ongoing annual compensation to tropical forest nations to conserve intact tropical forests. The fund now needs to build confidence amongst potential sponsors to demonstrate feasible pathways to impact. The project team will create a new location-based dataset of cost-effective forest conservation options for the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Brazil, where Woodwell researchers have a long history of relationships and expertise. This dataset will provide valuable information around what forest conservation strategies will be effective, and where, based on financial and social benefits to people in the target landscapes. Ultimately, the team will be able to concretely identify how much forest conservation can be achieved with a given budget, and where to target efforts to resolve the highest-priority risks. With this information, the TFFF can demonstrate the effectiveness of the program and incentivize participation of sponsor countries and tropical forest nations.
Landslide hazard management workshops in Homer and Seward, Alaska
Lead: Dr. Anna Liljedahl
Collaborator: Dr. Jennifer Francis
Extreme rain events, glacier retreat, and permafrost thaw are making landslides and landslide-generated tsunamis in Alaska more likely. However, these hazards are not well-integrated into land and emergency management—for example, warning systems are relatively non-existent. The project team will host workshops in two Alaska communities at risk for landslides and landslide-generated tsunamis to raise awareness about the threats among residents and public agencies, and to identify landslide hazard management practices. The workshops will bring together experts in science and hazard mitigation; city, borough, and state officials; and community members to jointly develop recommendations for action. This effort builds on the ongoing work of Dr. Liljedahl’s project, Arctic Tsunamigenic Slope Instabilities Partnership (Arctic T-SLIP), and will support a future group of research proposals to the National Science Foundation on landslides and landslide-generated tsunami hazards. Insights gained from these workshops will also add detail to a Woodwell Climate Just Access risk report completed for Homer in 2021.
The exhibit “In Flux: Perspectives on Arctic Change” sprawls across two floors of one of Cape Cod’s oldest summer-home mansions— Highfield Hall.
When they first walk in, visitors see two of Woodwell Climate Board Member Georgia Nassikas’ encaustic paintings flanking a banner with the name of the exhibit. Woodwell Senior Geospatial Analyst Greg Fiske’s maps light up the entry hall. Sounds from Michaela Grill and Karl Lemiuex’s documentary film cascade down from the staircase to the second floor. Tall windows illuminate Gabrielle Russomagno’s small, detailed photographs of the Arctic’s durable vegetation and Aaron Dysart’s reflective sculpture, which invites us to tread with caution.
These six artists’ works have been on display in Highfield Hall since May 21st, and will remain as part of the “In Flux” exhibit until July 14th. On July 11th, some of the artists will participate in a panel discussion with their Woodwell scientist collaborators, Dr. Jennifer Watts and Dr. Sue Natali.
Connecting to a new perspective
The exhibit’s goal is to connect a distant community to the reality of Arctic change. Many of us may never have the opportunity to visit the Arctic, or study it like Woodwell Climate researchers do. Art can help communicate the reality of an unfamiliar place.
Woodwell Climate’s Arctic research informed every piece of art on display at Highfield Hall. Each artist has had the chance to travel to the Arctic alongside Woodwell researchers Dr. Jenny Watts and Dr. Sue Natali. According to Watts, traveling with an artist brought a new perspective to a landscape she had visited so many times before.
“They are looking through the lens of the artist,” Watts says, “They’re kind of seeing it through this fresh look, and then we’re able to see it through their eyes.”
Russomagno calls herself a “student of the Arctic.” Like some of the other artists, she had never been so far north before her 5-day trip with Watts to Alaska. She recalled the whirlwind experience of creating while acclimating to her new surroundings.
“I was able to be making art while discovering,” Russomagno says, “I was looking at the same material [as Watts] and understanding it completely differently.”
The exhibit assumes visitors might come in with certain assumptions about the Arctic, but hopes they will soon throw their preconceived ideas out of Highfield Hall’s many windows. One of these false ideas, Watts says, is that the Arctic is a barren wasteland.
“In the summer especially, it’s brimming with life, and we wanted to show that part of the story because it’s often overlooked,” she says.
Bursts of life from the summer tundra— small shrubs, mosses, lichens, and grasses— are featured in Russomagno’s series of photographs in “The Quiet & the Mighty.” Nassikas’ encaustic paintings uniquely depict color, horizon, and change. Fiske’s maps teleport us from Highfield Hall to the tundra. The entire “In Flux” exhibit displays unexpected dimension.
Why combine art and science?
The experience of the art at Highfield places the viewer in the atmosphere of the Arctic tundra. A quiet place with unexpected vibrancy, the uptick in frequency of deafening crashes as ice melts, breaks, and shifts. These elements would be much harder to glean from traditional methods of communication in the science world. A graph, for example, would likely not evoke such a strong emotional response.
“I think Woodwell and other science organizations struggle with conveying their data, and hard facts, and things they’re discovering to a general audience,” Nassikas says, “Art is another way to change the world for the better.”
Dysart echoed this message: “If research does not connect with people and culture, nothing’s going to change. Art can make that connection. Art has strength that words don’t.”
Our shared home
Part of the power of this exhibit is its setting. We have the opportunity to experience the Arctic’s dynamic changes outside of its natural barriers, and Highfield Hall is the tether.
Dysart says it is “A call back to [our] normal life as opposed to the gallery aesthetic.”
Highfield is a home. It may not feel familiar to everyone, with its extravagant furnishings, stained glass windows, chandeliers, and many rooms, but it was built by humans, for humans. The house has withstood the test of time, though it has changed greatly since its construction in 1878. The Arctic, too is a home for many people, animals, and plants— one that is threatened by climate change. The exhibit at Highfield Hall brings the changing Arctic home to our own changing landscape.
Fund for Climate Solutions awards five new grants
From the Arctic to the Tropics, the 2024 winter cohort of FCS projects fills information gaps to produce actionable insights
Quantifying large greenhouse gas emissions from a retrogressive thaw slump in Alaska
Lead: Jennifer Watts
Collaborators: Kyle Arndt, Patrick Murphy
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are extreme permafrost thaw landscape features, which occur when a section of ice-rich permafrost becomes warm enough to cause the ground ice to melt and soils to collapse. Once they start, RTS continue to expand and destroy nearby permafrost for months to years. Many RTS have been identified, but because they are often in extremely remote arctic locations, very little is known about the potentially substantial carbon emissions from RTS in the form of carbon dioxide and methane. This study will provide the first continuous measurements of carbon emissions from a RTS, collected over at least a year via an eddy covariance tower. The research is also supported by an equipment loan provided through the U.S. Department of Energy AmeriFlux Rapid Response program, which recognized this project as a valuable opportunity to advance science. The data collected will also serve as a “proof of concept” for a subsequent $1.3M proposal to the National Science Foundation for continued research at the site.
Assessing the impacts of ecosystem disturbance on carbon emissions from Arctic and Amazon ponds
Lead: Elchin Jafarov
Collaborators: Zoë Dietrich, Andrew Mullen, Jackie Hung, Marcia Macedo, Kathleen Savage
Freshwater ecosystems are significant sources of the greenhouse gases that persist in the atmosphere and contribute to warming. However, research is lacking an understanding of how disturbances like wildfire and agriculture can change these emissions. This project will address these information gaps by collecting measurements of carbon emissions from ponds, using autonomous floating chambers developed with funding from a previous FCS grant. With this new high-resolution data, the team will unlock the ability to predict year-round greenhouse gas emissions from ponds in the Arctic and the Amazon. Floating chambers will be deployed in ponds in Alaska affected by wildfires, and in agricultural reservoirs in the Amazon-Cerrado frontier. In both locations, the ability to take more frequent measurements of carbon emissions will help researchers improve models and better assess the ponds’ impacts on regional carbon budgets.
The Polaris Project: Data synthesis from almost two decades of research and student participation
Lead: Nigel Golden
Collaborator: Sue Natali
Established in 2008, the Polaris Project has earned global recognition for its leadership in Arctic research, education, and outreach. Through the commitment to providing students with hands-on experience, Polaris has enabled numerous publications and presentations. Polaris is approaching a critical juncture in the next funding cycle, and this project will complete the first-ever comprehensive synthesis of Polaris Project research to help sustain Woodwell Climate’s sole undergraduate research program. By consolidating past research and educational achievements, the team will create a data synthesis paper to be submitted to a peer-reviewed, open-access scientific research journal, as well as a retrospective analysis of undergraduates’ research experiences with Polaris to be submitted to an education research journal. The team will also launch an online communications piece that documents past Polaris participants’ field experiences and unique journeys with a variety of narrative and artistic communications styles and elements.
Determining the climate sensitivity of coastal rivers to guide ecosystem restoration across SE Massachusetts
Lead: Abra Atwood
Collaborators: Marcia Macedo, Chris Neill, Linda Deegan, Scott Zolkos
Coastal rivers, like those that flow into Massachusetts’ Buzzards Bay and Vineyard Sound, are fragile environments that serve critical ecological functions for native fish, downstream estuaries, and coastal wetlands. Different rivers are uniquely sensitive to changes in air temperature based on a variety of characteristics, such as their water source or shade. However, land use changes, including housing development and cranberry bogs, have affected key river characteristics and stream temperatures. This project will investigate MA coastal rivers’ sensitivity to changing air temperature, as well as how that sensitivity is affected by both connection to groundwater and the creation or restoration of cranberry bogs. The temperature sensors and geochemical analyses used in this research may be scalable beyond these rivers and yield insights to inform research approaches relevant to rivers around the world.
A drought early warning system for the DRC: Developing a seasonal forecast based on novel machine learning approaches
Lead: Carlos Dobler-Morales
Collaborators: Christopher Schwalm, Glenn Bush
Seasonal weather forecasts hold immense potential to improve risk management from agricultural failure, water stress, and extreme events. However, significant advances in technical forecasting capabilities remain largely unavailable to communities without the resources to develop or customize them for their region. In 2023, Woodwell Climate Just Access co-produced a national climate risk assessment with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. That report identified drought as a major climate threat to the DRC—one which stands to affect almost the entire country. In response, this project will develop a seasonal drought forecasting model tailored to the DRC using cutting-edge machine-learning methods. The forecast will be able to deliver precise rainfall anomaly predictions up to six months in advance for the whole country, and serve as an early warning system to help local people and decision-makers anticipate the impacts of escalating drought risk.
Learn more about the Fund for Climate Solutions.
A map of Alaska created by Senior Geospatial Analyst Greg Fiske garnered two awards—the International Cartographic Association and International Map Industry Association Recognition of Excellence in Cartography, and Cartography Special Interest Group Excellence—at the Esri User Conference in San Diego this week.
Esri is the industry leader in mapping software and the Esri User Conference brought together more than 20,000 geospatial professionals including cartographers, software developers, students, end users, and policymakers. Woodwell Climate has an ongoing partnership with Esri and has attended the conference for more than two decades.
“These awards mean a great deal as the recognition comes from two very highly acknowledged cartographic organizations and the map pool at the Esri User Conference was immense,” Fiske said. “In the case of this map, not only did I share a basemap that we’re using widely in our Permafrost Pathways project, but I also shared a high-level overview of how I created the map and the resources (in the format of data, software, tutorials, and people) needed to do the same anywhere on the planet.”
The map that won the awards shows the topography of Alaska. To the average viewer, it is beautiful, informative, and not overly complicated. But Fiske also created a storymap that breaks down the data layers, and analytical and design steps required to create the map—and it is anything but simple.
Fiske has been creating maps at Woodwell Climate for more than 20 years, and is known among colleagues—at the Center and across the mapping community—for his analytical skill, creativity and artistry, and dedication to quality.
“People are drawn to a beautiful map,” Fiske said. “Putting our work on a map takes advantage of that scenario and gives us an opportunity to spotlight our research.”
Located in Eastern Alaska, the Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge is larger than many U.S. states. It’s a roadless landscape of rocky mountain outcroppings, flat meadows, treeless tundra, and dense spruce forests, bisected by the Yukon River and dotted with thousands of lakes and wetlands. Several Alaska Native communities call the refuge home and subsist off of its natural resources. This diverse, expansive wilderness is well adapted to fire, and it’s not uncommon to see pink fireweed blooms or young grass and seedlings sprouting from burn scars.
But the relationship between fire and land here—as in many places—has been changing as the climate warms. Yukon Flats sits atop ancient, ice-rich ground, called Yedoma permafrost, formed during the last ice age. Thawing Yedoma is a significant source of carbon dioxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. Fire, made more intense and frequent by climate change, threatens to accelerate that thaw. In an effort to preserve carbon stores, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service recently dedicated 1.6 million acres of the Yukon Flats refuge to piloting a new firefighting regime, one designed to protect carbon, in addition to human lives and property.
Science builds the case for policy change
This decision was, in part, influenced by research led by Dr. Carly Phillips, during her time as a research scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, alongside Woodwell Climate Senior Science Policy Advisor, Dr. Peter Frumhoff, and Associate Scientist, Dr. Brendan Rogers. In a 2022 paper in Science Advances, the group quantified the threat boreal forest fires pose to climate goals. Wildfires in boreal North America alone could, by mid-century, use up 3% of remaining global carbon dioxide emissions associated with keeping temperatures below the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. This is a conservative estimate—the authors suggest the true numbers could be even larger as the accelerating effect of fires on permafrost thaw, and the release of other greenhouse gasses, were not included in the analysis.
The study also examined the cost-effectiveness of combatting those fires as a potential climate solution. Molly Elder, an economics and public policy Ph.D. candidate at Tufts, performed an analysis of data from across Alaska’s fire management zones and found that actively suppressing boreal fires could cost less than 13 dollars per ton of carbon dioxide emissions avoided—putting it on par with other carbon mitigation solutions like onshore wind or utility-scale solar.
“The work we did in this project proved and quantified what the management community already knew, which is that management is effective at reducing burned area when fires are actively suppressed,” says Elder.
Combating boreal fires could provide much needed mitigation, and at a low cost, but there are some logistical obstacles between the hypothetical model and actual implementation. Typically, in Alaska, boreal forest fires are left to burn unless they present a risk to human life or property. This is partly because these forests are fire-adapted, but also partly due to the sheer vastness of boreal wilderness. With limited resources, it is not always practical or possible to track down and put out a fire, especially in a place without roads like Yukon Flats. Firefighters are already stretched thin with lengthening and increasingly high-intensity fire seasons.
So the research group worked with the fire management community in Alaska, facilitated by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium, to better understand the needs of firefighters and demonstrate the co-benefits of fire suppression in addition to preserving carbon.
“Many of the fire managers expressed how stretched their resources already were and resistance to the idea that yet another mandate would be added to their plate,” says Dr. Phillips. “However, after discussing the implications of our research, and the ambition that additional funding would come with any mandate, we got more buy-in.”
Fire suppression: It’s not a dirty word
The other concern managers raised was whether fire suppression would ultimately be successful in achieving their goals. Historically, fire suppression efforts in the US have been counterproductive to protecting forests.
In the late 1800s, lack of understanding of the ways Indigenous communities in Western states have used fire to maintain healthy forests resulted in decades of near-total suppression of fire in the region. In many western US forests, (adapted to what Dr. Rogers calls “high-frequency, low-intensity” fire) suppression allowed highly flammable, dry vegetation—which would normally be periodically burned away—to build up. When fires did spark, they were then capable of growing to a size and intensity that could damage, rather than activate, the forest.
But in boreal Alaska and Canada, it’s just the opposite. The spruce-dominated forests are adapted to high-intensity fires that only return every hundred or so years. As climate change speeds up the return of fires with hotter and drier conditions, boreal forests have begun to suffer major losses.
“The frequency of boreal fires, ultimately, is increasing. In many places we’re seeing more reburning and larger burned areas,” says Dr. Rogers. “Climate change and human actions are shifting that fire regime out of its historical range into this new realm. So the whole idea of fire suppression in the boreal is to keep fires closer to historical levels, to which the systems and fauna are adapted. Suppression can help delay permafrost degradation, limiting carbon emissions and buying us time to reach our climate targets.”
Past missteps with fire suppression have made fire managers cautious, though. Lisa Saperstein, Regional Fire Ecologist with U.S. Fish and Wildlife, notes that, with limited resources, priorities in intense fire seasons will have to shift to protecting human settlements over carbon and permafrost. But, given the co-benefits of keeping fire activity to historic levels—and the urgency of reigning in emissions in any way we can—managers in Yukon Flats were willing to try.
“This type of shift in values is always difficult, especially when the outcome is uncertain. Support from leaders of fire management organizations, in addition to land managers, has been a key factor in this effort moving forward,” says Saperstein.
If a fire starts in the woods, how do you fight it?
This change in tactics won’t mean that every fire that ignites will be put out—both impractical and unhelpful from an ecological perspective—but it will mean more aggressively targeting fires when they arise. Since the 1980s, when fire was detected in Yukon Flats, it would be monitored by the Alaska Fire Service, but not suppressed, except when presenting a threat to human communities.
“This pilot project is a new twist to a long-standing partnership between the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Alaska Fire Service. For select areas of the Refuge, now if a fire start is detected, we ask the Alaska Fire Service to only send a crew if they are confident in 100% containment within three days,” says Yukon Flats Refuge Manager, Jimmy Fox.
The suppression teams will target fires that they judge as “quick fixes”, curbing the potential for them to grow into large, stand-replacing sized blazes. If a fire becomes too big to fight quickly, the teams revert to the old tactic of simply monitoring.
“If a crew is deployed, we ask that they cease suppression and return to base after three days, regardless of containment status,” says Fox. “This request is grounded in concern for the Alaska Fire Service having resources available if communities become threatened from other fires.”
Fox says refuge management and Alaska Fire Service members will stay flexible as the pilot project unfolds so they can respond to changing conditions.
“In conservation, we tend to focus on the technical aspects of a challenge and avoid the difficulties that come with asking ourselves to adapt,” says Fox. “This pilot project is both adaptive and technical. It has required me to stay curious and listen. It has required me to learn new information, and share it in a way that is comprehensible. It’s required being comfortable with uncertainty, and yet standing in purpose. It has been a learning journey so far, and will continue to be.”
Putting models to the test
On the research side, the team at Woodwell Climate hopes this new strategy will present an opportunity to study the practical implementation of fire suppression as a climate solution.
“This is the proof of concept,” says Dr. Frumhoff. “This is the opportunity to really see in a rigorous way whether we can apply this solution at a meaningful scale and gain meaningful carbon benefits with relatively modest cost. And it’s directly traceable to the conversations that the research team had with fire managers.”
The 1.6 million acres slated for fire suppression are small compared to the 8.6 million that comprise the entire refuge, or the 5.6 billion acres of permafrost in the northern hemisphere, but it’s a very important start. Research and analysis of the effectiveness of this solution could aid its expansion to other regions of the Arctic.
“It’s a big moment, because, while it’s obviously a relatively small area compared to all of Alaska, 1.6 million acres is still a lot of land,” says Dr. Rogers. “We’re hoping that it’s a jumping off point and can translate to other refuges and other agencies with the addition of proper funding and staffing.”
And each summer, the case for protecting permafrost and boreal carbon, while working to dramatically reduce emissions from fossil fuels, continues to grow.
“Every year that goes by, as fires intensify and climate change gets worse, this message might resonate just a little more, ” says Dr. Rogers. “Because it’s a problem that’s not going away if we do nothing about it. And we can do something about it.”
Polaris Project alumni and early career scientists, Aquanette Sanders and Edauri Navarro-Peréz were awarded the 2022 John Schade Memorial scholarship. The fund, established to honor Dr. Schade’s unwavering dedication to mentoring young scientists, recognizes two students per year who are pursuing higher education and reflect Dr. Schade’s values of mentoring, education, leadership, equity in the sciences, and advancing Arctic and environmental science to mitigate climate change.
“The purpose of the fund is to support the next generation of scientists who are making a lifelong career and personal commitment to activities that reflect and demonstrate Dr. Schade’s values,” said Dr. Nigel Golden, a postdoctoral researcher at Woodwell and coordinator of the fund. “We were profoundly impressed with this round of applications. All of the applicants for the scholarship were exceptional early-career scientists who are doing timely and important research, and whose career trajectories have been impacted by their mentorship through Dr. Schade, or through their mentors who worked with him. For Aqua and Edauri, what really helped to set them apart was a demonstrable commitment to creating spaces to ensure the success of scientists from a diversity of backgrounds.”
Aquanette Sanders
Aquanette Sanders is a Masters student at the University of Texas, Austin, pursuing a degree in Marine Science. However, as a Polaris participant, Sanders’ research focused on the soil. She studied greenhouse gas fluxes from thermokarst features— depressions and bumps in the tundra landscape formed by permafrost thaw. Sanders studied how emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide differed between these features and undisturbed areas of tundra.
Sanders’ career so far has taken her from an undergraduate research program with Maryland Sea Grant, to a SEA Education cruise to the Sargasso sea, to the Simpson Lagoon on Alaska’s North Slope, where she is currently researching groundwater nutrient flows as they change with thawing permafrost. For Sanders, the experience with Polaris affirmed her interest in climate change and Arctic science.
“The Polaris Project was my gateway into Arctic science,” says Sanders. “Seeing the effects of permafrost thaw first-hand, with the large amount of thermokarst features in the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, confirmed that my research interest in greenhouse gasses and nutrient cycles— a topic that still has so many rising questions that need to be answered.”
Sanders says she is always looking for her next step forward in research. She plans to pursue a dual doctorate in veterinary medicine and research after completing her masters degree. She wants to combine her background in chemistry and biology to understand how changes in nutrients will affect aquatic animals at the top of the food web.
“My research is motivated purely by the eagerness to learn more. As I find new results, I ask more questions that eventually lead to more experiments or hypotheses. This keeps me excited and ready for present and future research,” says Sanders.
Edauri Navarro-Pérez
Edauri Navarro-Pérez is Ph.D. candidate at Arizona State University, with a background in soil, root ecology, and drylands restoration. As a Polaris student, Navarro-Pérez investigated whether there were differences between emissions coming from burned and unburned areas of the tundra. Her work contributed to a body of research examining how fires are affecting chemical processes in tundra soils— specifically respiration, which emits carbon and nitrogen. For her, Polaris was an opportunity to gain experience with field methods.
“Polaris contributed a lot to my knowledge in terms of how soil science is done in the field, as well as the process of the scientific method— from developing my own question to seeing the results of my work,” Navarro-Pérez said.
From Polaris, to working as an undergraduate lab technician, to conducting research in Belize and Costa Rica, Navarro-Pérez is led by her curiosity. She is especially interested in the way soil connects to our daily lives, and how understanding the interactions between plant roots and the soil in which they’re growing can lead to a deeper understanding of climate change.
“Understanding how restoration projects can affect plant development and how plants can affect soils in the longer run, through decomposition and soil respiration, can be pertinent to environmental planning for climatic issues,” said Navarro-Pérez.
Navarro-Pérez said she feels grateful that an environmental scholarship supporting Latina and Latino students enabled her to earn her undergraduate degree. She now hopes that her future career will involve research, mentoring, and teaching, as well as exploring her research topics through art and literature which provides a different frame for examining the world around us.
Both recipients will receive funding to continue their education and pursuit of science, mentorship, and equity, encouraging a new generation of Arctic scientists working to change the world.
Unchecked boreal forest fires are eating into our carbon budget
Proper management could be a cost-effective solution
What’s new?
A recent paper, published in Science Advances, has found that fires in North American boreal forests have the potential to send 3 percent of the remaining carbon budget up in smoke. The study, led by Dr. Carly Phillips, a fellow with the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), in collaboration with the Woodwell Climate Research Center, Tufts University, the University of California in Los Angeles, and Hamilton College, found that burned area in U.S. and Canadian boreal forests is expected to increase as much as 169 and 150 percent respectively—releasing the equivalent annual emissions of 2.6 billion cars unless fires can be managed. The study found proper fire management offers a cost-effective option, sometimes cheaper than existing options, for carbon mitigation.
Understanding boreal forest carbon
Boreal forests are incredibly carbon rich. They contain roughly two-thirds of global forest carbon and provide insulation that keeps permafrost soils cool. Burned areas are more susceptible to permafrost thaw which could in turn release even more carbon into the atmosphere. Although fires are a natural part of the boreal ecosystem, climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of them, which threatens to overwhelm the forest’s natural adaptations.
Despite the value of boreal forests for carbon mitigation, the U.S. and Canada spend limited amounts of funding on fire suppression, usually prioritizing fire management only where people and property are at risk. Alaska accounts for one fifth of all burned area in the U.S. annually, but it receives only 4 percent of federal funding for fire management. Limiting fire size and burned area through proper management can be effective at reducing emissions.
What this means for boreal fire management
To prevent worsening emissions, fire management practices will have to be adjusted to not only protect people and property, but also to address climate change. Fire suppression in boreal forests is an incredibly cost-effective way to reduce emissions. The study found that the average cost of avoiding one ton of carbon emissions from fire was about $12. In Alaska, that means investing an average of just $696 million per year over the next decade to keep the state’s wildfire emissions at historic levels.
Increasing wildfires also pose an outsized threat to Alaska Native and First Nations communities, who may become increasingly isolated, and may lack the resources to evacuate quickly if wildfire encroaches on their lands. Many Alaska Native people already play a crucial role in existing wildfire crews, and investing in more fire suppression could create additional job opportunities for Indigenous communities.