photo by Brendan Rogers
- Brendan M. Rogers Senior Scientist, Richard “Skee” Houghton Chair in Carbon Cycle Science
- Stefano Potter Research Associate
- Anna Talucci Research Scientist
- Susan M. Natali Senior Scientist, George M. Woodwell Chair in Conservation
- Peter Frumhoff Senior Science Policy Advisor
- Scott Zolkos Research Scientist
- Edward Alexander Senior Arctic Lead
- Joshua Rady Postdoctoral Researcher
- Kayla Mathes Postdoctoral Researcher
- Ludda Ludwig Postdoctoral Researcher
- Jackson Dueweke Research Assistant
- Brian Buma Senior Climate Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund
- Helene Genet Research associate professor, University of Alaska Fairbanks
- Jacquelyn Shuman Senior Wildfire Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund
- James Randerson Ralph J. and Carol M. Cicerone Professor, University of California, Irvine
- Jeff Ennenga Wildfire Resilience Program Director, Alaska Venture Fund
- Kevin Kriese Senior Wildfire & Land Use Analyst, POLIS
- Mark Zacharias Fellow, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions and Associate Fellow, Centre for Global Studies, UVIC
- Merritt Turetsky Professor and INSTAAR Director, University of Colorado Boulder
- Michelle Mack Regents’ Professor of Ecosystem Ecology, NAU
- Sander Veraverbeke Associate Professor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
- Scott Goetz Regents’ Professor, Northern Arizona University
- Winslow Hansen Forest Ecologist, Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
- Xanthe Walker Assistant Professor, NAU
The climate is changing faster in northern latitudes than the rest of the globe, intensifying wildfire regimes across the boreal landscape.
Boreal forests punch above their weight when it comes to carbon storage—they make up a third of global forests, but store roughly two thirds of global forest carbon. This carbon is found mainly in soil organic matter, and much of that is locked up in permafrost. However, these important carbon stores are at risk in a changing climate.
Longer fire seasons, warmer temperatures, and increased lightning ignitions are intensifying fire regimes in the north. The resulting increase in fires, area burned, and fire intensity directly contribute to larger amounts of carbon being emitted into our atmosphere. However, boreal fire emissions are largely missing from the climate models that inform the IPCC and global carbon budgets, are not completely reported in national greenhouse gas inventories, and are not managed with carbon or climate in mind.
How will boreal fire regimes continue to evolve, how will these changes impact greenhouse gas emissions and our global climate, and is there anything we can do about it?
Our Work
- Fire mapping. We’re pairing multiple scales of remote sensing imagery with deep learning models to more accurately map wildfire occurrence across the circumpolar boreal forest. This new technique is especially important for Siberia, which currently does not have reliable, operational data.
- Fire carbon emissions and climate impact. We are working with international collaborators to collect field observations on fire severity, burn depth, and carbon emissions to the atmosphere. These field measurements are combined with geospatial data and models to estimate carbon emissions across large scales, to estimate the impacts on permafrost, and to quantify the feedbacks to climate.
- Future projections. We are using machine learning and process models to project the impact of future climate on arctic and boreal wildfire regimes. These projections will be fed into models that quantify permafrost and wildfire feedbacks to climate change, and impacts on climate targets such as the 1.5 and 2°C goals established by the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Fire self-regulation. We are studying how boreal fires spread and are ultimately extinguished, as well as how this is impacted by top-down (e.g., fire weather, climate) vs. bottom-up (vegetation type, fuel, site drainage) drivers. This information is critical for being able to project fire regimes under continued climate change.
- Fire management as a mitigation strategy. We are combining fire carbon emissions estimates, econometric data, and modeling to explore the ways in which boreal fire management, such as early action fire suppression and cultural burning, can be used as a climate mitigation tool by keeping carbon in the ground, keeping permafrost intact, and better serving community needs. We are working with partners on the ground to implement changes to fire management plans, quantify the impacts on carbon, and engage with agencies and community members in Alaska and Canada.
- Integrating new technologies. We are collaborating with leaders in the technology development field to understand the role new technologies can play in improving fire response and climate science. As an Early Adopter of FireSat data, we are at the forefront of connecting new fire satellite constellations to fire operations and science.
This work is part of the Permafrost Pathways project. Learn more about our work on northern wildfires, climate, and health in our one-pager: Wildfire management as a climate solution in the Arctic-boreal region.
Research area
Above: Field research in a burned black spruce boreal forest. Photos by Jill Johnstone and Brendan Rogers.
Impact
While some climate models include boreal fire, they generally do not capture the emissions generated when fire burns soil organic matter or thaws permafrost. Our work aims to elevate and socialize these emissions as the global climate threat that they are, and to quantify how their release will impact our ability to meet climate targets.
Our research showing fire management to be a cost-effective natural climate solution has received attention because of its potential impact on carbon budgets. In 2023, and for the first time in US history, a land management agency increased the fire protection in an area specifically to protect carbon. After we shared our research with the fire management community in Alaska, USFWS designated 1.6 million acres of Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge as a pilot program for increased fire protection to preserve vulnerable ice- and carbon-rich permafrost.
We are currently working with our agency partners, Indigenous communities, research collaborators, and decision makers to understand how the combination of new technology and millenia-old Indigenous fire stewardship practices can be used as a natural climate solution to better protect carbon, permafrost, ecosystems, and Indigenous ways of living.
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under Award Nos. 2116864 and 2019485. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Partners & Collaborators
